How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 29 APR 2016

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FCPO Strategy UPDATE:  BUY once break up 2585 OR SELL above 2616, hit and run only.

 (April 29): Malaysian palm oil futures declined on Friday to a new seven-week low, as palm exports slow due to stronger demand for rival soyoil.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.4% to RM2,593 (US$664) per tonne at the close of trade.

It declined for a third week this month, and has lost 5.6% since the start of April.

Palm earlier hit a new seven-week low of RM2,570, its weakest since March 11. Traded volumes were 40,242 lots of 25 tonnes each, versus a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

"Since the palm and soy spread is narrow, people are taking soy. We have to see if demand comes in May, that will set the tone," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader, adding prices were unlikely to recover to RM2,700 if demand remained weak.  

"We are expecting Ramadan demand but it is not showing up fully yet."

The holy Muslim month of Ramadan, known for its communal fasting and feasting, usually increases the consumption of palm oil for cooking. Demand for the tropical oil usually picks up one to two months ahead of the festival, which starts in early June this year.

Recent cargo surveyor data recorded zero to little growth in export demand for Malaysian palm oil shipments between April 1 and April 25 from a month ago.

Data for the full month of April is scheduled for release on Saturday and Tuesday, but traders expect little improvement for April 1–30.  

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 29 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 28 APR 2016

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FCPO Strategy UPDATE:  BUY once break up 2609 OR SELL above 2630, hit and run only.

(April 28): Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a third session this week, tracking poor performing rival vegetable oils and on bearish local sentiment, driven by rising output and weak export demand.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 1.2% at 2,602 ringgit (US$669) per tonne at the end of trading, after earlier hitting a seven-week intraday low of 2,574 ringgit.

Traded volumes were 61,515 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the 2015 daily average of 44,600.

"Palm is down on external markets, (such as) Chicago Board of Trade soyoil and this morning Dalian RBD (refined, bleached and deodorized) palm olien was down sharply," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur.

"As for local sentiment, we're seeing the weather improve. Production is up and exports are only marginally up."

The most actively-traded September contract for palm olein on the Dalian Commodity exchange declined 3.3% on Thursday, while the May Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract lost 0.7%.

In other competing oils, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell nearly 2%.

Improving weather conditions could reduce the impact of the crop-damaging El Nino phenomenon, which brings scorching heat across Southeast Asia.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 28 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 27 APR 2016

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FCPO Strategy UPDATE:  BUY once break up 2670 OR SELL once break dn 2663, hit and run only.

(April 27): Malaysian palm oil futures declined to their lowest levels in nearly two weeks on Wednesday evening, as the ringgit recovered from a one-week low against the dollar and as traders cashed in on slow exports and improving output.

A stronger ringgit, the currency palm oil is traded in, makes the vegetable oil more expensive for foreign currency holders. The ringgit rose 0.3% to trade at 3.91 to the dollar in the evening, having slumped to its lowest level in a week to 3.9495 on Tuesday, following news of a Malaysian state-fund defaulting on a bond interest payment.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.6% to 2,633 ringgit (US$673) per tonne at the close of trade, its second session of declines this week.

Palm earlier hit an intraday low of 2,630 ringgit, its lowest level since April 15, and has declined 0.6% so far this week. Traded volumes were 51,472 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared with a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

"Palm is taking a cue from weaker exports and good production to cash in on the high price," a Kuala Lumpur based trader said, apart from the stronger ringgit.

Export demand for Malaysian palm oil products recorded little to no growth during April 1-25, compared with the same period a month ago, according to cargo surveyor data.

Indonesia, the world's largest palm producer, reported a 24% decline in its palm and palm kernel oil exports in March, compared with the previous month.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 27 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 26 APR 2016

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FCPO Strategy UPDATE: SELL FCPO JUL ONCE BREAK DOWN 2664, CUT LOSS ABOVE 2677

(April 26): Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Tuesday, up from a one-week low touched in the previous session, supported by a decline in the ringgit against the dollar.

A weaker ringgit lent support to palm but earlier gains were limited due to higher production and slowing exports, said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur.

The market later strengthened in the evening as some traders covered short positions, despite expectations that sluggish demand would eventually weigh on prices, a dealer said.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.8% at 2,675 ringgit (US$682) per tonne at the end of the trading day. It earlier fell for two consecutive days, seeing its sharpest decline since March 2 on Friday.

Traded volumes were 51,121 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

Malaysia's ringgit, the currency palm oil is traded in, fell 0.5% to the dollar on Tuesday, making the vegetable oil cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.

The ringgit fell to a one week low of 3.9495 per dollar, before rising to trade around 3.9200 in the evening, following news of state investment fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad defaulting on a bond interest payment.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 26 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 25 APR 2016

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 (April 25): Malaysian palm oil futures saw a second session of losses in trade on Monday, due to sluggish export demand and as traders forecast rising production in line with the seasonal trend.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.3% to reach 2,655 ringgit (US$681) per tonne in the evening, after earlier touching a one-week low of 2,653 ringgit.

Traded volumes were 61,436 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared with a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

"Over the next few months, production may be higher, that is why the market came down," said a trader based in East Malaysia, who doubts palm prices will reach the 3,000 ringgit mark as forecast by leading analysts.

"Exports are not catching up ... The market is unlikely to move higher and it will continue to trade lower due to weaker overall exports in April."

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 25 APR 2016

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How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 22 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 22 APR 2016

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(April 22): Malaysian palm oil futures snapped a four-day rising streak on Friday as sluggish export demand and a correction in rival soyoil prices prompted traders to book profits.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 1.68% lower at RM2,689 (US$690.20) per tonne. Palm oil had risen 3.5% in the previous four sessions.

Traded volumes were 37,903 lots of 25 tonnes each on Friday.

"Exports demand is not picking up. It seems buyers are waiting for a correction," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Purchases by palm oil importers, including top buyer India, are running behind schedule, traders said.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April 1–20 rose just 0.9% to 724,169 tonnes from 717,670 tonnes shipped during March 1–20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said earlier this week.

"Underlying trend is bullish considering the expected drop in the production, but right now demand is not supporting further upside," the trader said.

Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top two producers, is expected to drop in 2016 following hot and dry weather brought on by the El Nino weather pattern.

How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 21 APR 2016

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 (April 21): Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, hitting their highest in more than two weeks, on expectations of lower production following hot and dry weather brought on by the El Nino weather pattern.

Purchases by palm oil importers, including top buyer India, are running behind schedule and a rush to cover supplies could stoke further gains in the market that has climbed 11% this year, traders said.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.9% higher at RM2,734 (US$703.2) per tonne. It earlier climbed to RM2,743 a tonne, the highest since April 5.

Traded volumes stood at 47,508 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"Our prognosis is that with lower production and higher consumption of biodiesel this year, the stage is set for the next rally and prices can range between 2,800-RM2,900 in the second quarter," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

"Consumers, especially our main buyers, have not covered enough — Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. It will be a supply driven push initially before demand kicks in."

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April 1–20 rose 0.9% to 724,169 tonnes from 717,670 tonnes shipped during March 1–20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said earlier this week.

Malaysian palm oil inventories in March fell below 2 million tonnes for the first time in a year as buyers rushed to stock up on the tropical oil before a tax on exports kicked in, offseting a seasonal jump in output.

Additional support for palm oil stemmed from strong gains in US soybeans.

US soybeans rose for a third consecutive session on Thursday, climbing to a nine-month high on buying by investment funds and concerns over adverse weather curbing yields in Argentina.

Much of Argentina's soy crop has been swamped by 20 days of merciless rain, threatening a loss of supply from the world's top exporter of soymeal livestock feed and its No. 3 supplier of beans.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 21 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 20 APR 2016

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(April 20): Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a third consecutive day on Wednesday, tracking a rally in alternative vegetable oils to reach a near two-week high.

Palm has gained 1.7% so far this week, after falling for two weeks.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.8% to settle at 2,709 ringgit (US$701) per tonne at the end of the trading day.

It earlier hit an intraday peak of 2,733 ringgit, the highest since April 7.

Traded volumes were 51,945 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the 2015 daily average of 44,600.

"Palm oil is getting a free ride from external markets," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader, referring to alternative vegetable oils.

"The market is very strong today (on the) soybean and oil run up, this morning Dalian RBD (refined, bleached and deodorized) palm olein also ran up."

The most actively-traded September contract for palm olein on the Dalian Commodity exchange surged 2% on Wednesday.

Among alternative oils, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 1.6%, whereas the May Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract dropped 0.4%.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 20 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 19 APR 2016

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 (April 19): Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a second trading day to a one-week high on Tuesday, tracking competing vegetable oils, after suffering losses in the previous two weeks.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was up 0.8% at RM2,688 (US$692) per tonne. It earlier rose to an intraday high of RM2,696, the highest since April 11.

Traded volumes were 50,335 lots of 25 tonnes each, versus the 2015 daily average of 44,600.

Palm tracked the Dalian market and the Chicago Board of Trade higher, a trader based in Kuala Lumpur said.

The market was adjusting to the stronger ringgit, the currency palm is traded in, which has risen against the dollar since early April, the trader added.

"Export figures tomorrow will be interesting given that the ringgit strengthened during the last five days."

The ringgit was up 1.1% in evening trade on Tuesday, reaching 3.8820 against the dollar. A stronger ringgit makes palm oil more expensive for foreign currency buyers.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance are scheduled to release export data for April 1-20 on Wednesday. Malaysian shipments for the first half of April had improved from the corresponding period last month, helped by demand from China and India.

Benchmark palm oil prices had reached a two-year high at the end of March as the market went long over concerns of weaker output due to a crop damaging El Nino. March production in Indonesia, the world's top palm producer, is expected to fall to a 13-month low as the dry weather phenomenon hurts yields and lowers output.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 19 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 18 APR 2016.bmp

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 (April 18): Malaysian palm oil futures made some gains in Monday trade, rising after two consecutive weeks of losses as a weaker ringgit and improving exports supported the market.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange strengthened 1%, registering its strongest gains in three weeks to reach RM2,668 (US$680) per tonne at the close of trade.

Traded volumes were 50,507 lots of 25 tonnes each, more than a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

"It's mainly the ringgit propelling the market higher today, said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur. "But exports have also been fairly good."

The ringgit, the currency palm oil is traded in, fell 0.6% against the dollar in trade on Monday evening to reach 3.9250 on tumbling oil prices, as major producers in Qatar failed to come to an agreement to freeze output.

A weaker ringgit typically supports palm oil, as it makes the vegetable oil cheaper for foreign currency holders.

Palm oil shipments from Malaysia showed rising export demand for the first half of April, even with an export tax in place. Cargo surveyor data showed improving shipments between 7%–20% from the first half of March, lifted by demand to China and India.  

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 18 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 15 APR 2016

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How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 15 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 14 APR 2016

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(April 14): Malaysian palm oil futures reversed course to fall slightly in late trade on Thursday, as export demand remained weak ahead of data on early
April shipments.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dipped 0.1%, settling at 2,657 ringgit (US$683) per tonne at the close of trade. Traded volumes were 51,099 lots of 25 tonnes each, above a 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

"Exports are dwindling because of higher prices. We should see some pressure on prices," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

"The market is trying to recover but it's still not getting any momentum."

Another trader said the range-bound market was awaiting new leads, such as data from cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance.

Shipment data for the first 15 days of April is due to be released on Friday, and could show declines from the corresponding period a month ago due to an export tax on crude palm oil. Shipments in the first 10 days of April fell 1-2%.  

Malaysia introduced a 5% tax on crude palm oil for April, ending a duty-free policy in place since May 2015.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 14 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 13 APR 2016

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(April 13): Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the first time in six sessions on Wednesday, tracking competing vegetable oils, in particular sharp gains in soyoil.

Palm dropped 4.8% since the start of its downtrend in the six previous sessions on a strengthening ringgit and better-than-expected March output growth data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).

The data showed a 16.9% jump in output in March from February, more than double the 8% growth forecast in a Reuterspoll.  

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.8% to reach 2,659 ringgit (US$687) per tonne at the close of trade.

Traded volumes were 47,126 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than a 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

"Palm rose because of Dalian, and it should hold due to the fact that the market is a bit oversold," said a trader at a brokerage firm in Kuala Lumpur.

The September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 1.1% on Wednesday, while the May Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract rose 1%.

U.S. soybean futures had climbed to an eight-month high on Wednesday due to fund buying and concerns that rains would limit Argentinian harvests, while the world's largest soybean buyer, China, imported 6.1 million tonnes in March, the most it has ever bought in the month of March since at least 2008.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 13 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 12 APR 2016

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 (April 12): Malaysian palm oil futures fell in evening trade to the lowest in almost a month, following the release of government data showing better-than-expected output growth in March.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.1% to reach 2,639 ringgit (US$681) per tonne at the closing trade. Traded volumes were 43,083 lots of 25 tonnes each, versus a 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

Palm oil, which fell for a sixth consecutive session on Tuesday, dropped 2.5% last week, after reaching a near two-year high of 2,793 ringgit on March 29.

Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed a 16.9% jump in output in March from February, more than double the 8% growth forecast in a Reuters poll.

"Everyone thought the report would be bullish as stocks fell to 1.89 million tonnes, but the surprising factor was production growth. Had it not been for exports, inventories would have looked heavy," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur. The trader added that Malaysia needs to see stronger palm shipments for benchmark prices to rise to 3,000 ringgit, as predicted by leading industry analysts.  

"It's possible by June if we don't have aggressive production growth," the trader said.

Output in the world's second largest palm oil producer Malaysia was expected to take a hit from the dry weather effects of the El Nino weather event, which lowers yields due to the scorching heat it brings across Southeast Asia.

Analysts say new planted areas and better yields in Peninsular Malaysia made up for the low output.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 12 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 11 APR 2016

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(April 11): Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Monday evening, on the back of a stronger ringgit and official data showing that output rose in March.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.5% down at 2,667 ringgit (US$686) a tonne for a fifth straight session of declines. It earlier touched an intraday low of 2,661 ringgit, its lowest since March 24.  

Traded volumes were 35,643 lots of 25 tonnes each, against last year's daily average of 44,600 lots.

Traders said the market fell, because of stronger than expected output data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), which reported a 16.9% rise in production and a 13.1% decline in stockpiles.

Malaysian shipments in March rose by 22.9% from a month earlier, as sellers rushed to export crude palm oil, ahead of a 5% export duty starting in April.

"MPOB stocks data could have been lower, and output was higher than expected by almost 10 percent," one palm trader said, referring to personal estimates, while another said that the stronger ringgit had capped palm's upside.

A Reuters poll of nine planters, traders and analysts had earlier forecast output to rise by 8% month-on-month to 1.13 million tonnes.

A stronger ringgit, the currency used for palm oil trading, drags on the vegetable oil's price. The ringgit strengthened 0.3% to 3.8870 against the dollar on Monday evening, making palm oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

Palm oil still targets 2,629 ringgit a tonne, as it has cleared a support at 2,716 ringgit, said Wang Tao, Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 11 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 08 APR 2016

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(April 8): Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Friday evening in line with competing vegetable oils, marking a fourth consecutive session of losses this week.

Futures were range-bound earlier in the day pending official government data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), which is scheduled to release March data on Monday.

Palm oil end-stocks in March are seen dipping below the 2-million-tonne mark for the first time in a year, a Reuterssurvey showed, declining 10.3% from a month earlier to 1.95 million tonnes. Output, however, is forecast to come in at the weakest for the month since 2007.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 1.1% to reach RM2,680 (US$687) per tonne at the close of trade, an intraday and two-week low. Traded volumes were 31,037 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower than the 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

"There's no excitement over external markets as the Dalian is in down trading range," said a trader at a brokerage firm in Kuala Lumpur. "The market is waiting for new leads pending the MPOB report. That's why volume is light today."

The trader later said the market saw some technical selling after breaking immediate support at RM2,700.

Palm oil may fall to RM2,629 per tonne as it has got out of a neutral range of RM2,716–RM2,776, according to Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 8 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 07 APR 2016

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(April 7): Malaysian palm oil futures fell in evening trade on Thursday, reversing earlier gains as weaker demand weighed on prices and traders took profits ahead of official data due next week.

Palm oil inventories in March are forecast to have dropped below 2 million tonnes, breaching that level for the first time in a year, with production coming in at its weakest for the month since 2007, a Thomson Reuters survey showed.

Malaysian inventories are likely to have fallen by 10.3% from a month earlier to 1.95 million tonnes at end-March, the survey of nine planters, traders and analysts
showed.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release March data on Monday.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.4% down at 2,710 ringgit (US$693) a tonne. Traded volumes were 34,119 lots of 25 tonnes each, against a 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

"We see some profit-taking happening and demand is not as fantastic as people thought," a Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.

Traders expect crude palm oil demand to slow this month, as Malaysia raised its export duty for April to 5% from zero for the first time in nearly a year.

Technical analysis shows signals are neutral for palm oil, which has been stuck in a range of 2,716-2,776 ringgit a tonne, according to Wang Tao, Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 7 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 06 APR 2016

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(April 6): Malaysian palm oil futures dropped to their lowest level in nearly two weeks on Wednesday, hit by better-than-expected output forecasts and weak export demand.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.2%, falling to RM2,722 (US$695) per tonne at the end of the trading day.

Earlier in the session the contract hit RM2,708, its lowest since March 25. Traded volumes were 48,993 lots of 25 tonnes each, above a 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

"Some expect better production in April, and exports are not promising," said a trader based in East Malaysia, adding that the market expects March output to grow 8%–10% month-on-month.

A Reuters poll had forecast March output to rise 8% from a month ago, in line with seasonal trends, ahead of official data scheduled for release on Monday. But production is seen coming in at its weakest for the month since 2007 due to a crop-damaging El Nino.

Industry experts have forecast El Nino's dry weather effects would reduce global output by 2–3 million tonnes, pushing prices up to RM3,000 per tonne by June.

Technical charts show palm oil is facing resistance at RM2,776, according to Reuters analyst Wang Tao.

But, palm oil shipments are expected to take a hit in April after Malaysia raised its crude palm oil export duty to 5% from zero, its first hike in nearly a year.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 6 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 05 APR 2016

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(April 5): Malaysian palm oil futures reversed earlier gains to fall in evening trade on Tuesday, as the market took profits in anticipation of higher than expected end-stocks.

Official palm oil data for March from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will be announced next Monday. AReuters poll has forecast stockpiles fell by 10.3% to 1.95 million tonnes.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.5% to settle at 2,756 ringgit (US$703) per tonne at the end of the trading day.

Traded volumes were 40,606 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared with a 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

"There's some profit taking and technical selling pressure.

Also the Reuters poll is not encouraging as some thought stocks would be lower than 1.95 million tonnes," a trader from Kuala Lumpur said.

"All this could have triggered selling ahead of the MPOB data next Monday."

The poll also forecasts Malaysian output at 1.13 million tonnes, 8% higher from February, but its lowest levels for the month since 2007, as the crop-damaging El Nino weather pattern affects fruit yields and lowers production.

There is normally a seasonal pickup in March palm output, with production rising 34% month-on-month in 2015 and 17% in 2014.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 5 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 04 APR 2016

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(April 4): Malaysian palm oil futures reversed course to rise for a second straight day in the evening, as the ringgit weakened and as palm tracked improving competing oils.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.9% to close at an intraday high of 2,773 ringgit (US$711) per tonne. Traded volumes were 32,409 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower than a 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

"(Palm rose on the) lower ringgit, and as other markets improve as well," a Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.

"A failed attempt to break below last week's low also rebuilt buying confidence, triggering technical strength."

The ringgit lost gains made earlier on Monday, weakening 0.3% against the dollar to reach 3.9020 in the evening. A weaker ringgit, which palm is traded in, makes the tropical oil cheaper for foreign currency holders.

Palm oil may rise into a range of 2,870 to 2,960 ringgit per tonne over the next three months, as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci ratio analysis, according to Reuters market analyst for commodities and technicals Wang Tao.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 4 APR 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 01 APR 2016

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(April 1): Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday, charting a third session of gains this week and tracking competing vegetable oils.

Gains could be capped by a stronger ringgit and as an export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) starts in April, traders said.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.8% to reach 2,748 ringgit (US$707) per tonne in evening trade. Volumes were 41,031 lots of 25 tonnes each versus a 2015 daily average of 44,600 lots.

"Dalian and the Chicago Board of Trade is strong so our market is up, but it could come under pressure because of the ringgit," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

"The market views the ringgit strength as a bearish factor for exports, coupled with (CPO export) taxes for April. We'll have lots of fluctuations these few sessions."

The ringgit hit 3.8820 against the dollar on Friday, its strongest in seven months, as the Federal Reserve raised doubts about US rate hikes this year. It gained 0.3% on Friday evening to trade around 3.8890.

Malaysian crude palm oil shipments are expected to take a hit this month, said the trader, as the government raised its export tax to 5% in April and ending a duty-free policy held since May 2015.

Palm oil shipments for March 1–31 surged 22%–24% from a month earlier, data released by cargo surveyors showed on Thursday, boosted by demand from India.  

Technical charts show palm oil could gain support at RM2,716, as it failed to break a resistance at RM2,776, according to Reuters market analyst for commodities and technicals Wang Tao.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 1 APR 2016

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