How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 29 Jan 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 29 Jan 2016

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(Jan 29): Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Friday to the lowest level in a week on slowing exports and as the Malaysian ringgit gained strength.

The palm oil contract for April on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 1.53% down at RM2,445 per tonne, after dropping to RM2,433 earlier in the day, the lowest level since Jan. 21.

The contract hit a high of RM2,512 on Thursday, the highest since May 28, 2014.

Traded volume stood at 41,078 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"Slowing exports are putting pressure on palm oil," said Alfred Mah, director of brokerage Matthes & Porton.

"We could see another 100-ringgit downside before a recovery."

In the last few weeks palm oil has rallied on expectations output from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia would be crimped by El Nino's dry weather effects.

The El Nino weather phenomenon brings heavy rains across South America but scorching heat in Southeast Asia, impacting palm's fresh fruit yields and lowering output.

Malaysia's palm output is only expected to rise 0.7% this year, while Indonesian production is seen at 35 million tonnes from 32.5 million tonnes in 2015.

"Strengthening ringgit could hit exports and nullify the impact of lower production," said a dealer based in Kuala Lumpur.

The ringgit jumped 1.4% against the dollar on Friday to their highest level in over three months.

Stockpiles in Malaysia as of end-December were at 2.6 million tonnes, down from an all-time high of 2.9 million tonnes a month ago. .

In related markets, the US March soyoil contract was down 0.11%, while the May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 1%.

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 28 Jan 2016

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(Jan 28): Malaysia's stock market continued its upward trend today, led by gains in blue chip stocks such as British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Bhd and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd.

The FBM KLCI ended the day up 2.99 points or 0.18% at 1,634.53, even though market breadth was negative with 522 losers compared with 348 gainers.

According to JF Apex Securities Bhd, the benchmark index swung between gains and losses before finishing higher amid overnight losses in US market. Trading volume increased to 1.82 billion shares worth RM2.46 billion compared with yesterday's 1.62 billion shares worth RM1.65 billion.

The local market performance was, however, dragged down by telecommunication stocks, which reacted negatively to an announcement in the recalibrated Budget 2016 that the government intends to optimise revenue from the telecommunication spectrum through redistribution and bidding process, which will be implemented soon.

In a Jan 27 note on the telecommunications sector, RHB Research pointed to a risk to the potential move in that spectrum bids may go overboard.

"This can result in value destruction for the industry, as can be inferred from the recent Thai spectrum auctions," it added.

At closing bell, shares in Axiata Group Bhd were down 52 sen or 8.51% at RM5.59,Maxis Bhd  shares fell 42 sen or 6.36% to RM6.18, while DiGi.Com Bhd 's stock was down 22 sen or 4.31% at RM4.88. They were among the top 10 losers on Bursa Malaysia today.

Other lagging movers were glove counters such as Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, down 59 sen or 7.08% at RM7.74; Top Glove Corp Bhd , down 50 sen or 8.2% at RM5.60; and Supermax Corp Bhd down 22 sen or 7.03% at RM2.91.

"There's always an investor perception that when the ringgit strengthens, it's time to divest glove counters and vice versa, even though glove counters have come out to say that their financial performance is not solely dependent on the fluctuations in the currency," a bank-backed analyst told theedgemarkets.com.

The most actively traded counter was Xidelang Holdings Ltd  with 103.9 million shares traded.

At press time, the ringgit strengthened by 1.1% to 4.2055 against the US dollar, from 4.2525 yesterday. Against the Singapore dollar, the ringgit also strengthened by 1% to trade at levels of 2.9471, from its close of 2.978 yesterday.

Regionally, Asian shares rose slightly in choppy trade today as investors attempted to interpret the US Federal Reserve's statement overnight and oil prices fell back after climbing in the previous session, according to Reuters.

Reuters reported that a bounce in oil prices also offered some salve to strained nerves in the Asia-Pacific region. While Brent crude was off 42 US cents at US$32.68 a barrel today, this followed a 4% jump on Wednesday, after Russia hinted at cooperation with OPEC on oversupply.

How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 28 Jan 2016

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(Jan 28): Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday after rising to a 20-month high earlier in the day, giving up gains on the back of a stronger ringgit.

Palm hit a two-week low of RM2,408 last week before rising for three sessions to a 20-month top of RM2,512.

The palm oil contract for April on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.9% lower at RM2,480 (US$589.07) per tonne after hitting an intraday high of RM2,512, the most since May 28, 2014.

Traded volume stood at 45,869 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"The ringgit strengthened so it's a good opportunity for the correction," said a trader at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage.

"The market has traded from RM2,408 to a high of RM2,512, so it's normal to pull back a bit."

The ringgit gained 1% against the dollar to 4.210. A weaker ringgit, usually lends support to the vegetable oil by making it cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.

In related markets, crude oil prices  rose above US$33 a barrel on the possibility that major producers may cooperate to offset production.

The US March soyoil contract gained 0.3%, while the May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchangerose 0.2%.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1033 GMT

Contract	Month	Last	Change	Low	High	Volume
MY PALM OIL	FEB6	2387	-25.00	2382	2420	350
MY PALM OIL	MAR6	2450	-27.00	2435	2488	4619
MY PALM OIL	APR6	2480	-22.00	2469	2512	23547
CHINA PALM OLEIN	MAY6	4742	+28.00	4734	4772	943498
CHINA SOYOIL	MAY6	5630	+12.00	5620	5660	532372
CBOT SOY OIL	MAR6	30.95	+0.00	30.74	31.01	6670
INDIA PALM OIL	JAN6	433.40	+0.00	432.80	434.50	601
INDIA SOYOIL	FEB6	615.50	+3.40	612.20	617.70	23600
NYMEX CRUDE	MAR6	32.63	+0.33	31.74	32.88	85277

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in US cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg
Crude in US dollars per barrel

(US$1 = RM4.2100)
(US$1 = 68.2100 Indian rupees)
(US$1 = 6.5754 Chinese yuan renminbi)

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 27 Jan 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 27 Jan 2016

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(Jan 27): Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a third straight session on Wednesday to hit their highest level in 19 months, on tighter supplies.

The palm oil contract for April on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 1.41% in afternoon trade, to touch its highest level since June 25, 2014 at 2,510 ringgit (US$590.17) per tonne, before settling up 1.1% at 2,502 ringgit.

Traded volume stood at 62,044 lots of 25 tonnes each.

"The market will hold... The reason is tight availability of crude palm oil. Moving forward there will be a production decline and stocks are manageable," said a trader with a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage that deals in palm oil.

Palm oil output growth may decline this year in Southeast Asia, as dry weather caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon affects fresh fruit yields and lowers productivity.

Malaysian palm output will rise only 0.7% in 2016, from a year ago, to 20.1 million tonnes, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is forecasting. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm-oil producer, will see exports drop to about 23-24 million tonnes, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association has predicted, the first decline in five years, as supply is directed to domestic uses.

Palm oil shipments from Malaysia have fallen about 8% so far this month, according to data from cargo surveyors, on slowing economic growth in top consumer China.

Stockpiles in Malaysia as of end-December were at 2.6 million tonnes, down from an all-time high of 2.9 million tonnes a month ago.

In related markets, crude oil prices fell to around US$30 per barrel on a surprise rise in U.S. inventories, which could take a drag on palm oil prices as the vegetable oil is used for blending into fuel for biodiesel.

The U.S. March soyoil contract gained 0.2%, while the May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchangerose 0.6%.
 
  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1017 GMT

Contract	Month	Last	Change	Low	High	Volume
MY PALM OIL	FEB6	2413	+26.00	2380	2414	533
MY PALM OIL	MAR6	2476	+29.00	2439	2481	4538
MY PALM OIL	APR6	2502	+27.00	2463	2510	27834
CHINA PALM OLEIN	MAY6	4750	+76.00	4686	4750	1084532
CHINA SOYOIL	MAY6	5642	+36.00	5586	5644	617330
CBOT SOY OIL	MAR6	30.80	+4.10	30.57	30.93	5291
INDIA PALM OIL	JAN6	433.00	+4.10	429.50	433.60	1178
INDIA SOYOIL	FEB6	612.20	+2.85	610.00	613.60	23590
NYMEX CRUDE	MAR6	30.24	-1.21	30.14	31.22	83043

  Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
  CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
  Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
  India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg
  Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

(US$1 = 4.2530 ringgit)
(US$1 = 68.0300 Indian rupees)
(US$1 = 6.5779 Chinese yuan)

How to trade FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Futures ( FKLI ) 26 Jan 2016

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How to trade Crude Palm Oil Futures ( FCPO ) 26 Jan 2016

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(Jan 26): Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a second session and hit a one-week high on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations of lower output and as traders covered their short positions ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, but gains were restricted as crude oil prices resumed their descent.

Benchmark palm oil prices have been under pressure and hit a one-week low earlier this month, in the absence of an expected pick up in demand from China, before the new year celebrations in February. A plunge in crude oil futures to 12-year lows has also made the tropical oil less attractive for blending into biofuel.

"Lower output in January and short covering are the catalysts behind firmer prices today," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur. "As February is a short month with long Chinese New Year holidays, major selloffs will be muted temporarily."

The palm oil contract for April on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.6% to 2,475 ringgit (US$577.12) per tonne at the close of trade. It earlier reached 2,479 ringgit, its highest since Jan 18.

Traded volume stood at 44,679 lots of 25 tonnes each. The market will be closed on Feb 1 for a public holiday in Kuala Lumpur, and over Feb 8-9 for the Lunar New Year holidays.

Production from Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer after Indonesia, is expected to decline in the coming months, in line with seasonal trends and as the impact of a crop-damaging dry weather linked to an El Nino weather pattern kicks in.

Palm oil still targets a resistance at 2,495 ringgit per tonne, as suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, according to Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.

However, weak exports will likely keep a lid on gains.

Data from cargo surveyors shows monthly exports of Malaysian palm oil products have dropped around 8% so far in January.  

A slide in crude oil prices  to below US$30 per barrel, after a brief rally towards the end of last week, will also drag on palm oil futures.

The U.S. March soyoil contract was slightly down 0.1%, while the May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.1%.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1012 GMT

Contract	Month	Last	Change	Low	High	Volume
MY PALM OIL	FEB6	2387	+5.00	2380	2398	244
MY PALM OIL	MAR6	2448	+13.00	2429	2452	5653
MY PALM OIL	APR6	2475	+15.00	2452	2479	21123
CHINA PALM OLEIN	MAY6	4692	+36.00	4638	4696	1030528
CHINA SOYOIL	MAY6	5608	+4.00	5568	5638	656944
CBOT SOY OIL	MAR6	30.38	-0.60	30.21	30.51	3322
INDIA PALM OIL	JAN6	428.90	-0.60	428.00	430.80	446
INDIA SOYOIL	FEB6	608.65	-4.00	608.60	613.80	39590
NYMEX CRUDE	MAR6	30.08	-0.26	29.25	30.33	76956

 Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
 CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
 Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
 India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg
 Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

(US$1 = 4.2885 ringgit)
(US$1 = 67.8600 Indian rupees)
(US$1 = 6.5815 Chinese yuan)